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Most Dynamic Metropolitans 2024

Dave Shideler, Minoli Ratnatunga and Jackson Li

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Executive Summary

The 2024 Most Dynamic Metropolitans report evaluates 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across the United States, ranking them on indicators such as employment, average annual pay, real GDP growth, per capita income, and measures of entrepreneurial activity. These metrics provide insights into the diverse economic trajectories of U.S. regions, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to benchmark progress and identify strategies for growth.

Top Performers

  • Midland, TX reclaimed the No. 1 spot, driven by its oil-driven economy, ranking first in short-term GDP growth and per capita income ($151,400).
  • Wildwood-The Villages, FL, while dropping to No. 2, continues to attract retirees with robust real estate development and leisure amenities.
  • Bozeman, MT emerged as No. 3, showcasing success in leveraging outdoor recreation and tech sector diversification.

The top 25 metros for this year are listed to the right.

Themes and Trends

  1. Innovation-Driven Growth:
    • Silicon Valley (No. 7) and San Francisco (No. 13) rebounded due to advancements in Generative AI (Gen AI). Companies like Apple and Alphabet invested heavily in AI, while startups like Anthropic and Perplexity AI contributed to the dynamic tech ecosystem.

    California’s Central Valley saw ag-tech advancements drive growth, with metros like Hanford-Corcoran and Bakersfield-Delano climbing over 200 ranks.

  2. Post-Pandemic Migration and Tourism:
    • Metros like Bend, OR (No. 8) and Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL (No. 47) leveraged quality-of-life amenities and outdoor recreation to attract new residents and visitors, driving economic momentum.
  3. Higher Education as an Economic Catalyst:
    • Research universities in metros such as Austin, TX (No. 4), Huntsville, AL (No. 38), and Fayetteville, AR (No. 36) played a pivotal role in fostering skilled workforces, innovation, and public-private partnerships.
  4. Resource-Based Economies:
    • Energy and mining hubs, including Greeley, CO (No. 15) and El Centro, CA (No. 30), utilized resources like oil, gas, and lithium to drive development. Midland and Odessa, TX, focused on clean-energy innovations alongside traditional extraction industries.

Top 10 Heartland Metros

The heartland—defined as 20 states in the center of the country—showcased several high-performing regions:

  1. Midland, TX (No. 1)
  2. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX (No. 4)
  3. Sherman-Denison, TX (No. 13)
  4. College Station-Bryan, TX (No. 21)
  5. Auburn-Opelika, AL (No. 23)
  6. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (No. 36)
  7. Huntsville, AL (No. 38)
  8. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN (No. 45)
  9. Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL (No. 47)
  10. Slidell-Mandeville-Covington, LA (No. 49)

These metros benefited from diverse factors, including strong university ecosystems, technology hubs, manufacturing expansions, and vibrant entrepreneurial activity.

ES 1. TOP 25 OVERALL METROS

  1. Midland, Texas
  2. Wildwood-The Villages, Florida
  3. Bozeman, Montana
  4. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas
  5. Naples-Marco Island, Florida
  6. Punta Gorda, Florida
  7. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California
  8. Bend, Oregon
  9. Provo-Orem-Lehi, Utah
  10. St. George, Utah
  11. Boulder, Colorado
  12. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, Florida
  13. Sherman-Denison, Texas
  14. San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, California
  15. Greeley, Colorado
  16. Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Port Royal, South Carolina
  17. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida
  18. Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
  19. Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  20. Boise City, Idaho
  21. College Station-Bryan, Texas
  22. Salt Lake City-Murray, Utah
  23. Auburn-Opelika, Alabama
  24. Helena, Montana
  25. Wilmington, North Carolina

ES 2. – MOST IMPROVED METROS

METRO NAMEPOPULATION CATEGORYIMPROVEMENT
(NUMBER OF SPOTS)
IMPROVEMENT RANK
Cheyenne, WYSmall2511
Lexington Park, MDSmall2462
Hanford-Corcoran, CASmall2383
Redding, CASmall2294
Bakersfield-Delano, CAMedium2185
Pittsfield, MASmall2006
Salinas, CASmall1897
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZSmall1878
Lewiston-Auburn, MESmall1839
Hammond, LASmall17510

Most Improved Metros

  • Cheyenne, WY climbed 251 spots to No. 52, driven by improvements in real GDP and pay growth.
  • Lexington Park, MD experienced significant short-term employment growth and high employment momentum, as well as high young firm knowledge intensity, bring it up 246 spaces to 112 overall.
  • Hanford-Corcoran, CA, part of California’s Central Valley, rose to 68, up 238 places due to agricultural technology applications, illustrated in its 4th place for young firm employment share and high rankings for employment momentum and short-term average annual pay.
  • Redding, CA had the 4th highest improvement, up 229 places, having experienced fast growth in short-term economic output, employment momentum and high employment share in young firms.
  • Bakersfield-Delano, CA, also part of California’s Central Valley, had the 3rd highest share of employment at young firms (just over 20%) and fast growth in short-term average annual pay and real economic output.
  • Hammond, LA, the most improved heartland metro, rose 175 places to No. 118, buoyed by manufacturing investments

Key Policy Insights

This year’s rankings emphasize the importance of place-based economic development and regionalism. Particular economic development strategies reflected in the high performing and most improved metros include:

  • Workforce Development: Tailored training and retraining programs are essential to address regional labor demands, particularly in tech and clean energy.
  • Entrepreneurship and Innovation: Investment in incubators and accelerators can sustain the growth of young, knowledge-intensive firms.
  • Affordable Housing and Infrastructure: Regions must address housing affordability and modernize infrastructure to attract and retain talent.
  • Sustainable Resource Use: Energy-rich regions must integrate clean-energy solutions to ensure long-term viability.

This report offers a roadmap for fostering inclusive growth and regional competitiveness. Policymakers are encouraged to tailor strategies to their region’s unique strengths while addressing challenges like affordability and resource sustainability. By prioritizing innovation, workforce development, and collaboration, regions can secure long-term dynamism and prosperity.

INTRODUCTION

This edition of Most Dynamic Metros presents an economic snapshot of the performance of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2024. By analyzing data that captures regional growth, the prevalence of young firms, income, employment, education and other factors, this report allows cities to evaluate how they are doing compared to their peers. It showcases regions that are successfully creating policies that foster thriving communities and identifies national industry trends that have contributed to growth across cities.

Despite solid national GDP growth (3.1% in the third quarter of 20241) and employment numbers (4.2% in November 20242), concerns around affordability were present in economic discussions in communities across the country. Tight housing markets continue to drive up rents and house prices, overflowing into nearby metros. Some regions have been able to build up their housing supply to take advantage of new residents, and prices in these cities are expected to grow more slowly.

In our 2023 report, we saw the impact of tech companies reducing their headcounts in Silicon Valley after a long stretch of aggressive hiring. While broad- based tech growth has slowed and become more distributed across other metros, interest in artificial intelligence (AI) related applications has driven more focused investment in Silicon Valley. In metros closer to agricultural centers, the development and adoption of agriculture-facing technology has also stimulated the creation of new firms that translate AI and sensor- based data management to better control various elements of food production. Federal investments in semiconductor manufacturing contributed to the success of metro economies with anchor firms specializing in these areas. As in previous years, mining dependent regions continued to leverage their natural resources, while metros that saw spikes in growth attributable to pandemic and post- pandemic relocation and local tourism experienced a leveling off. Notable this year is the dynamism observed in heartland metros home to large colleges and universities, including in Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas.

Migration patterns and population growth led some regions formerly considered micropolitan areas to be redefined as metropolitan statistical areas. This report includes these new MSAs where sufficient data was available. Shifts in population also led to the merging of some MSAs as commuter sheds grew.

Midland, Texas returns to the No. 1 spot on our most dynamic metros index this year, enjoying the highest adjusted per capita personal income ($151,401). Midland continued to experience strong real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranking first on our short-term measure and second on our five-year measure. No. 2 is Wildwood-The Villages, Florida, which slipped from first place last year. Like Naples- Marco Island, Florida (No. 5), Punta Gorda, Florida (No. 6), St. George, Utah (No. 10) and North Port- Bradenton-Sarasota, Florida (No. 12), attractive climates and retirement friendly amenities have continued to draw both tourists and older relocating adults to the area. However, the draw of these factors may be waning somewhat. Sebastian-Vero Beach- West Vero Corridor, Florida (No. 31) and Coeur d’Alene, Idaho (No. 32) with similar profiles dropped out of the top 10 this year.

The Cheyenne, Wyoming metro improved its standing by 251 places compared to last year, the biggest jump by any region on this year’s index. Thanks to improvements in the one-year metrics for average annual pay and real GDP growth, Cheyenne now ranks No. 52. In the heartland, Hammond, Louisiana was the most improved, jumping 175 spots to No. 118 with major investments in manufacturing and processing plants planned for the region.

In this report, we will share our methodology, highlight the micropolitan areas that became metros this year, and explore the big trends across cities that have helped fuel success.

METHODOLOGY

The 2024 Most Dynamic Metros rankings are based on an analysis of key economic indicators across metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. These metrics include average annual pay, employment, real gross domestic product (chained to 2017 dollars), per-capita personal income, the share of total employment at firms five years old or younger (young firm employment share), and the proportion of employees at young firms with a bachelor’s degree or higher (young firm knowledge intensity).

Metrics are categorized to evaluate short- and medium-term economic trends. Short-term growth (2022-2023) assesses annual changes in metrics such as real GDP, job creation, and wage increases. For employment, short-term growth momentum specifically refers to changes between March 2023 and March 2024. Medium-term growth is measured by the growth in jobs, wages, and real GDP over five years (2018-2023) which are supplemented by 2023 per-capita personal income levels as a measure of general well-being. Indicators such as young firm employment share and knowledge intensity are also analyzed to assess entrepreneurial activity and innovation potential. These analyses adhere to MSA definitions set by the federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB), covering 380 MSAs for which data was available.

Due to changes in geographic definitions, certain areas are excluded from the analysis. For instance, a Census Bureau announcement on June 6, 2022 indicated that Connecticut replaced its county system with nine planning regions acting as county-equivalents. As the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could not adopt these changes in time, all Connecticut’s MSAs are excluded from our final rankings. Similarly, Cape Girardeau, Missouri – Illinois, and Paducah, Kentucky-Illinois metros are also not included in the final rankings due to missing data on young firm knowledge intensity.

To ensure comparability, regional price parity (RPP) data from the BEA is applied to adjust income and wage figures, accounting for local cost-of-living differences relative to the national average. All metrics from the BLS, BEA, and Census Bureau are standardized into z-scores, reflecting each metro’s economic performance relative to the national mean in standard deviation units. MSAs are ranked based on their average z-scores across all evaluated indicators.

TABLE 1. MEASUREMENTS AND SOURCES

MEASURETIME PERIODSOURCE
Young firm employment ratio2023Census Bureau
Young firm knowledge intensity2023Census Bureau
Per-capita personal income2023Bureau of Economic Analysis
Medium-term job growth2018 – 2023Bureau of Labor Statistics
Short-term job growth2022 – 2023Bureau of Labor Statistics
Short-term job growth momentumMarch 2023 – March 2024Bureau of Labor Statistics
Medium-term average annual pay growth2018 – 2023Bureau of Labor Statistics
Short-term average annual pay growth2022 – 2023Bureau of Labor Statistics
Medium-term GDP growth2018 – 2023Bureau of Economic Analysis
Short-term GDP growth2022 – 2023Bureau of Economic Analysis

REGIONS TRANSITIONING FROM A MICROPOLITAN TO BEING A METROPOLITAN

To help us understand our communities, the federal government defines urban areas by grouping neighboring counties that have strong economic and social connections and then classifies these urban areas into different categories by population size. Federal agencies and departments collect and report data using these defined “statistical areas,” including the data we use to create this index. Areas with populations over 50,000 are generally defined as metropolitan statistical areas, and areas with populations roughly between 10,000 and 50,000 are classified as micropolitan statistical areas.

The federal Office of Management and Budget updates their definitions periodically to reflect changes in population, economic ties or commuting patterns. A formerly largely rural county might be added to a micropolitan or metropolitan area because of increased economic or commuting ties, or a large metropolitan area might be split into two distinct areas if a second economic center emerges, or a micropolitan area might gain population that moves it past the threshold to become a metropolitan area. It is also possible that metropolitan areas lose population, such that they are reclassified as micropolitan areas.

Our index this year includes several metros that were formerly classified as micropolitan statistical areas. Based on the 2020 Census count and analysis of the regional economies, some urban areas experienced increases in the resident population since 2010 that were large enough to trigger this reclassification. The new metros included in our report are:

  • Bozeman, Montana
  • Eagle Pass, Texas
  • Helena, Montana
  • Minot, North Dakota
  • Pinehurst, North Carolina
  • Sandusky, Ohio
  • Traverse City, Michigan

While new addition Eagle Pass, Texas had the smallest population among the 380 metros we ranked, at just under 58,000 in 2023, other former micros had more than three times the threshold population. In northwestern Michigan, Traverse City, Michigan had over 156,000 residents in 2023, despite previously being categorized as a micropolitan area, and is larger than more than 100 other metros. Some of the established metros smaller than Traverse City are experiencing population decline due to aging populations and outmigration.

As we noted in our most recent most dynamic micropolitans report, population growth is not necessarily the goal for many smaller urban areas. There are many micros where residents and civic leaders value the quality of life and the size of their communities as they are. Others pursue growth and aim to develop new economic opportunities in their regions, building on their natural assets or new industries to attract and retain residents and visitors. Higher birth rates or improvements to longevity in a region can also contribute to a larger population. In some regions, a larger population reflects shifts in neighboring metros and might result from bedroom communities emerging where new residents take on a longer commute to work in exchange for lower housing costs or a better quality of life. In these cases, growth may not have been an aspiration, but it is a reality for these communities.

The timing of the 2020 Census means that the reclassifications were not based on the pandemic and post-pandemic relocations enabled by remote working policies. However, the desire to work and live in high quality places and the growing technological support that facilitates telecommuting were existing trends amplified during the pandemic. The high cost of housing and labor in established tech hubs on the coast were pushing people and jobs to big metros in the heartland and mountain west, and then from there to smaller communities surrounding these areas.

We see this pattern in the migration data; while most new residents in the two new Montana metros moved from elsewhere in the state, California and Colorado were both also major contributors of new residents. Bozeman, Montana was a top 10 performer on our 2022 most dynamic micropolitans index, placing 6th. This year, compared to larger peers on our metros index, it places third overall. The region’s outdoor recreation and proximity to Yellowstone National Park has attracted tourists and new residents; it is also home to the state’s largest public research university, Montana State University. In 2022, ten percent of Bozeman residents had moved into the metro in the previous five years. It has experienced strong employment growth in recent years and is discussed in more detail later in this report. Helena, Montana places 24th on our index and ranked 56th on our most dynamic micropolitans index in 2022. The region is attracting new residents and experiencing a growing demand for housing and rising house prices. Like Bozeman, Helena’s location makes it an attractive stop for visitors to the many natural wonders in the area, with access to both Yellowstone and Glacier National Parks. As the state capital, it also serves as a center for government work. The region is entrepreneurial, ranking No. 32 for the share of employment at young firms. These firms are typically not knowledge intensive (No. 249 on this metric), and Helena ranks just outside the top third of metros assessed for per capita incomes.

Other new metros that have benefited from quality of place and tourism are Pinehurst-Southern Pines, North Carolina (No. 37) and Traverse City, Michigan (No. 131). Pinehurst is home to the prestigious Pinehurst Resort, a golf course that hosted the U.S. Open Championship again in June 2024. The region performed particularly well on short-term employment growth, placing 7th, with the growing population also contributing to demand for retail and construction services. Traverse City is leveraging its agricultural strengths to attract visitors. It hosts the National Cherry Festival in July, with wrap around entertainment including a pie-eating contest, carnival rides and live music. The region is also developing its wine tourism, with award-winning vineyards and wineries on the Leelanau and Old Mission Peninsulas.

Not all the newly designated metros have been growing in recent years. The data used to reclassify communities is based on changes experienced between 2010 and 2020, which only overlap with our five-year measures so reclassification isn’t necessarily an indicator of recent dynamism.

Eagle Pass, Texas places No. 308 and is unusual among this cohort for attracting migrants moving to the US directly from Central America. They make up the bulk of new residents moving to the region from outside Texas.3 While Eagle Pass is experiencing a natural increase in population with births outnumbering deaths in recent years, it also has lost population to domestic migration, slowing its growth somewhat. The region borders Mexico, and is well located for international trade. It also attracts cross- border visitors drawn to the attractive retail offerings.

Minot, North Dakota (No. 342) has experienced infrastructure investment relating to the extraction of shale oil from the Bakken Formation. The Minot Air Force Base is the major employer and provides stability to counteract the fluctuations in employment that can be experienced by regional economies dependent on extracting energy resources. The region has relatively high per capita income, ranking 43rd on this metric. Like Eagle Pass and Sandusky, Minot’s population has not been growing in recent years. Between 2020 and 2023, Minot experienced significant domestic outmigration, overwhelming the net gains from natural increase.4

Sandusky, Ohio gained its metropolitan designation by expanding geographically. The OMB added Ottawa County to the Sandusky region which previously only included Erie County. Though Ottawa is only home to a third as many residents as Erie, the combination of the two counties boosted the Sandusky micro to metro status. The newly defined region has not experienced population growth, mirroring the experience of many midwestern communities.

However, the new metro status itself could lead to more economic development opportunities for the region if a larger pool of labor and developable sites proves attractive to relocating or expanding businesses. While not highly ranked on our index, placing 295th, Sandusky is home to Cedar Point amusement park and several water parks attracting tourists to the region. It was the headquarters of the Cedar Fair Entertainment Company until its merger with Six Flags Entertainment Corporation, completed in mid-2024.

These new metros reflect the dynamic forces of larger, more established metropolitan areas. In addition to fluctuations in population, they embody development themes observed among their larger peers, such as technology development and applications to historically significant industries like agriculture and manufacturing, tourism and leveraging higher educational institutions. The remainder of the report will flesh out these themes while highlighting exemplary metros and development practices. We begin with a discussion of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) in the next section.

GEN AI, AGRICULTURE AND SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING

Technology hubs continue play a role in the economic development of metros. This year’s report, however, saw noticeable patterns in technology applications, when combined with other macroeconomic forces, enhanced economic dynamism in several of our top performing metros. Specifically, innovation and development around gen AI, technology applications and high commodity prices in agriculture and semiconductor manufacturing announcements responding to the CHIPS and Science Act all contributed to the metro growth.

Gen AI

Benefiting from its deep expertise in cutting edge technological innovation, San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara, California (also known as Silicon Valley) reclaimed its position in the top 10 overall rankings (7th) after falling to 29th in our previous report. The development and application of gen AI among existing (e.g., Apple and Google’s parent company, Alphabet) and startup companies in the region (such as Cohere, Imbue, Runway, CoreWeave and Quantexa) contribute to its top young firm knowledge intensity value of 38.2%, dramatic shift in average annual pay from a 12.2% decline during 2021–2022 to 6.3% increase during 2022–2023 and second highest per capital measure of $131,160.5 The short-term wage measure ranks Silicon Valley as the third fastest growing large metro behind the Seattle and the San Diego metros. Collectively, these metrics point to the rising demand for highly specialized tech professionals as firms increasingly focus on gen AI development. Only Midland, Texas, an oil- and gas-driven economy, had higher per capita income than Silicon Valley.

Silicon Valley experienced a relatively strong rebound in its short-term GDP growth at 3.4% GDP 2022- 2023, after weaker performance on our last edition. This measure, combined with its positive short-term pay growth, historically high young firm knowledge intensity, and per capita personal income were sufficient enough to restore San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, to seventh in the overall ranking.

Silicon Valley is home to several Fortune 500 tech companies which have been heavily increasing their commitment to investing in gen AI technology. Over the past five years alone, Apple has invested approximately $100 billion in R&D research on this topic. This heavy investment supports the ongoing development of features such as Siri and AI-enhanced tools for photo processing, facial recognition, and predictive text that can be handled on-device, eliminating the need to send user data to external servers. Apple has focused its investment on integrating gen AI capabilities into its consumer oriented ecosystem, primarily targeting enhancements for individual users. On the business-oriented solution side, Alphabet is gearing its AI investments towards enterprise applications in sectors such as health care. One of Alphabet’s key initiatives is to increase operational efficiency and innovative research in health care and pharmaceuticals. Through its DeepMind subsidiary, Alphabet has developed AlphaFold: an AI system that is able to predict protein structures and is said to be able to accelerate drug discovery. The advancements Alphabet developed through AI investments not only have the potential to transform medical research but also aim to improve medical professionals’ workflows and to improve patient care.6

While the Silicon Valley metro leads technological breakthroughs in gen AI research and development through its Fortune 500 tech giants, a new wave of “young firms” is trying to define the future of this technology in the San Francisco metro area. More than twice the size of San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, San Francisco had a population of 4.6 million in 2023. San Francisco is fertile ground for tech start-ups to develop their ideas. The metro registered a 13.3% in young firm employment share, 2% higher than its neighbor Silicon Valley. Both metros have consistently dominated the young firm knowledge intensity metric, sharing a need for specialized professionals to staff their well-developed tech sectors. San Francisco’s economic composition closely mirrors that of Silicon Valley, and their rankings have tended to align. Both dropped out of the top 30 in the previous Most Dynamic Metros report, and in the current edition, both metros regained ground and returned to the top 25 overall. They also ranked in the top three overall within the large metro category. Like the Silicon Valley metro, the San Francisco metro has shown notable improvements in short-term wage growth and GDP performance: short-term pay growth rebounded to 4.8% in 2022-2023 from -6.6% in the previous period. Similarly, the San Francisco metro’s short-term GDP growth, which previously stood at -0.2%, has turned around to 3.4%. These improvements are important factors in raising the rankings of both metros, alongside their consistently strong metrics in income per capita, the young firm employment share, and medium-term wage and GDP growth. San Francisco- based startup examples include Anthropic, whose flagship product is Claude and focuses on the ethical use of AI, and Perplexity AI, an AI-based information retrieval service for web-based searches.

The heartland is also growing due to gen AI, through the housing of data centers that train new AI models to support the ever broadening range of applications for the technology. By the end of 2023, Des Moines, Iowa was home to five Microsoft data centers that helped develop OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4 and help run Microsoft’s Copilot-enabled services such as Bing and Microsoft 365. The employment at these data centers, roughly 600, contributes to the young firm knowledge intensity value of 27.9%, ranking 41st, and placing Des Moines in the top quartile of metros. Microsoft has also offset the immense power needs of these facilities by generating renewable energy in equal quantities, given the state’s significant renewable energy resources.7

The re-emergence of Silicon Valley and San Francisco showcases their ability to innovate and adapt, in this case by investing, researching and developing generative AI tools. Fortune 500 firms such as Apple and Alphabet committing resources to integrating gen AI into their ecosystems, whether for consumer- based applications or enterprise-oriented solutions, demonstrates a shift in the tech sector’s strategic priorities. At the same time, gen AI start-ups like Anthropic and Perplexity AI serve as examples of the new wave of tech firms testing the limits of gen AI and are backed by substantial investments from firms like Amazon. These technologies are also supporting the heartland through data center construction, such as in Des Moines. While the economic fortunes of these tech hubs will be shaped by gen AI, the integration of gen AI into everyday life and business operations will redefine productivity and business decision-making in regions across the country.

Agriculture

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), agriculture, food, and related industries contributed roughly $1.530 trillion to U.S. GDP in 2023, which accounted for 5.5% of total GDP in the same year.8 Given the highly competitive regulated markets in agriculture, technology has often generated solutions to make food production affordable and plentiful, not to mention address issues of relative isolation, precise nutrient application and logistics (both on the farm and throughout the food production system).

As the world’s fifth-largest food supplier, nine metros located in California improved 100 spots or more, most of which have a significant presence in the agricultural sector.9 Two of the top five most improved metros, Hanford-Corcoran and Bakersfield-Delano, California, each climbed more than 200 spots in the rankings.Hanford-Corcoran now holds the 68th overall position, while Bakersfield-Delano is ranked 116th in the current edition. Both are situated in California’s Central Valley (a large region historically famous for its agricultural presence). The Central Valley also includes other metros such as Merced, Visalia, and Fresno, all of which have advanced by at least 100 spots since last year’s report. Outside the Central Valley, the remaining four California metros that improved by at least 100 spots are Redding, Salinas, Vallejo, and El Centro, with El Centro achieving 30th overall.

Agricultural production in California uses technology to overcome challenges such as drought and water shortages, temperature regulation and other weather- related risks farmers cannot control. And commodity prices often reward those using technology to enhance production. Specifically, 2022 was a year of severe drought in California, so those farmers with products to sell benefited from very high prices. Similarly, 2023 was a year of excessive water, which also limited production and led to unusually high commodity prices.10

California’s Central Valley metros also benefit from participation in and benefits of the Farms Food Future (F3) Initiative, an U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration Build Back Better Regional Challenge phase 2 awardee, receiving$65 million. The F3, previously known as the Fresno- Merced Future of Food Initiative, sets the goal to adopt technology and skill development within the region’s agriculture sector across five focus areas: climate-smart agriculture, ag-tech innovation, local food systems, workforce development, and urban connectivity.11 One important component of the project is F3 Innovate, an innovation center in Downtown Fresno that focuses on

  • Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, Digital Mapping and Data for Decision-making
  • Automation, Cyberphysical Systems, Robotics, and Mechatronics
  • Food-Energy-Water Systems (e.g., biomass, agrivoltaics, vertical farming)
  • Internet-of-Things, Edge Computing, Human- Computer Interaction, and Image Processing
  • Advanced Materials, Manufacturing Processes, Digital Twins
  • Water Information and Accounting (e.g., precision irrigation, groundwater recharge)
  • “Technology Stack” Systems Integration
  • Small Farmer Tech Solutions
  • Climate Resilience and Regenerative Agriculture

These research and development initiatives attract young firms to capitalize on the region’s advancements. Four of the highest 10 values for young firm employment share are located in the Central Valley: Visalia (20.8%), Bakersfield-Delano (20.6%), Hanford-Cocoran (19.6%) and Merced (18.8%).

Relx estimates that the agricultural sector is among the top industries for AI utilization, reaching 87% in 2021.12 Use of these technologies empower farmers to be more aware of plant and livestock nutrient needs, facilitate more granular application of pesticides and herbicides, and more effectively monitor and maintain field equipment such as irrigation and fencing. Grand Farm, located in the Fargo, North Dakota metro, exists to solve agricultural challenges through the use of applied technologies like gen AI.

The agricultural sector is an example of an industry that relies on technology to provide solutions to its unique and complex challenges. With the volume of food produced in Central Valley and El Centro, along with their relative proximity to Silicon Valley and other renowned resources, it’s not surprising that these regions are among the country’s most dynamic metros and leading the country in ag tech development and application.

Semiconductors

On the global scale, Taiwan is the biggest player in semiconductor manufacturing followed by Samsung in South Korea. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) alone was reported to occupy 61% of the global foundry services, and Samsung contributed another 14%, in the fourth quarter of 2023.13 With the sheer dominance of the semiconductor manufacturing market in Southeast Asia, a reaction to the limited supplies of semiconductors realized during the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential compromise of American defenses should semiconductor supplies again become limited, the United States enacted the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act under President Biden with the goal of enhancing American semiconductor manufacturing competitiveness and increasing its global market share to 10%. The $52.7 billion package is used for American semiconductor research and development, manufacturing and workforce development.14

The CHIPS and Science Act spurred investment announcements of domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Of note is Micron Technology’s $40 billion investment, the largest in U.S. memory manufacturing history (first in the last 20 years) and creating a projected 40,000 new jobs nationwide, including 5,000 high-paying technical and operational positions. More than one-third of this investment, $15 billion, will be used to build a new fabrication facility in Boise, Idaho, where Micro Technology is headquartered.15

Boise City, Idaho MSA has been consistently ranked as one of the most dynamic metros in the country. Since the first inception of the report, Boise has remained in the top 25, earning its place in the esteemed “five- timers club,” and this year it ranked 20th overall. In addition to being home to Micron Technology, Inc., Boise possesses fantastic natural amenities that strongly appeal to highly skilled workers seeking a balance between their careers and the outdoors. Boise’s strength in performance stems from its medium-term indicators (2018–2023) that highlight its economic longevity: Employment growth during this period reached 17.3%, 7th among all metros, strong average annual pay growth over the 5 years of 30.1% (66th) and medium-term real GDP growth of 28.3% (15th among all metros). These metrics point to Boise possessing a highly valued and productive workforce.

Sherman-Denison, Texas has also established its position as a fast-growing economic hub, ranking third among heartland metros just behind Midland and Austin and 9th in the small metro category. Over the past three years, Sherman-Denison has shown consistent growth with its dynamic economic trajectory, having climbed 153 spots to 13 this year. Sherman-Denison’s upward momentum is driven by employment growth in computer manufacturing (Texas Instruments and GlobiTech), food manufacturing (Tyson Foods and Ruiz Foods) and fabricated metal products (tanks and shipping containers primarily supporting regional agriculture and oil and gas extraction).16

From 2018 to 2023, employment growth reached 10.1% which is ranked 46th amongst all metros. For the 2022– 2023 period, Sherman achieved a remarkable 7.5% employment growth, ranking 2nd highest, while March
2023–March 2024 employment growth was 2.5%, placing it at 57th. This strength is further supported by their growth in real GDP performance, medium-term growth of 18.4%, ranking 68th, and 2022–2023 real GDP growth at 6.6%, which ranks 19th. These metrics collectively signal Sherman metro’s strong economic momentum, and announcements about significant TI and GlobiTech expansions as part of the CHIPS and Science Act, suggest continued growth in computer and semiconductor manufacturing.

Technology drove the economies of both leading metros and most improved metros. Gen AI development helped restore Silicon Valley and San Francisco to the top 25 metros, while ag tech and high commodity prices drove growth in California’s Central Valley and semiconductor manufacturing sustained Boise’s top 25 position and helped Sherman-Denison, Texas jump 153 spots over the last 3 years.

POST-PANDEMIC SETTLEMENT IN TOURISM, OUTDOOR RECREATION, AND REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT

During the pandemic some people moved out of dense urban areas seeking quality of place and quality of life in smaller communities. Typically, these are also places attractive to people on vacation, and after travel restrictions were lifted, these communities saw an influx of visitors as a result of pent-up desire for tourism. While many moved back to their home city after the pandemic, some of these relocations and upticks in visitor numbers have outlasted the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend has driven strong performance by these destination metros, but growth has slowed recently. Higher interest rates may have delayed migration as people locked into mortgages at lower rates are unwilling to sell or move. This reluctance may change if interest rates come down.

The trend of people moving to work from places that they also enjoyed living and playing in, rather than waiting till they retired to live ‘the good life’ was underway before 2020, but the pandemic amplified the scale of the shift. We see this manifest in the metros that have done well on our index, with several mountain and western state metros with good access to outdoor recreation like Bozeman, Montana and Bend, Oregon, doing well.

Tight housing markets in major metros have also pushed some people to consider moving to a different city. Smaller metros may compare favorably not just on the cost of housing, but on the cost of living generally, and the overall quality of life. This has created housing demand and boosted real estate development in these areas. This is also true for major metros like Austin, Miami, and Nashville, where a combination of a dynamic economy and new visitors and residents is driving investment in home building and hotel development.

The impact of new residents and short-term rentals on existing residents and the housing market has been a cause for concern in many smaller metros on our index. While a larger population does create more demand for services locally in retail, leisure, health care and education, existing residents are keen to see new business starts and local investment that would create higher wage opportunities for them. Access to higher education and fostering entrepreneurship and innovation locally could create broader prosperity instead of simply increasing competition for existing jobs and resources. As housing costs rise, service jobs may not pay enough to be able to afford to live in the community.

We group real estate development, tourism and outdoor recreation in this discussion because of the interconnectedness of their impact on this cohort of cities.

Outdoor recreation tourism and attracting new residents and visitors

Places of natural beauty with developed outdoor recreation amenities can be attractive to people looking to relocate in search of a higher quality of life. Converting visitors into residents based on opportunities to enjoy the outdoors and local quality of life has helped fuel population growth in Bozeman, Montana, Bend, Oregon and Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, Alabama. These metros are also pursuing strategies to diversify their economies to be less dependent on the cyclical and seasonal tourist industry.

Bozeman, Montana is one of our new metros this year, and ranks 3rd. Located in the Rocky Mountains and serving as the western gateway to Yellowstone National Park, the region draws visitors from around the world. The easy access to outdoor recreation, including fishing, downhill skiing, hiking and hunting, attracts local tourists to the region. The city of Bozeman also has a lively downtown area and is home to Montana State University. This attractive quality of life has spurred in-migration, with the region’s population more than doubling between 1990 and 2020. Bozeman was in the top tier of metros for employment growth, the 5-year (No. 4) and short-term employment gains (No. 5). It ranked first for average annual pay growth on the 5-year measure. Leisure and hospitality employ just over 20% of the private sector workforce in the Bozeman metro.17 Bozeman is home to major ski resorts including Big Sky Resort, which is the second largest ski area in the country. In 2023, the city of Bozeman adopted an economic vitality strategy aiming to build the region’s strengths in traded sectors, including quantum computing and climate technology, to support a more diverse economy.18

Bend, Oregon ranks No. 8 on our index. Like Bozeman, outdoor recreation is very accessible and includes skiing at Mount Bachelor, hiking, mountain biking, and water-based recreation. The Cascade Lakes and Deschutes National Forest offer natural beauty to enjoy, and the city of Bend boasts local breweries and restaurants. The quality of life has transformed visitors into new residents, and in 2023 the population grew at double the national average. The metro continues to attract retirees and remote workers, and housing availability and affordability continue to be challenging. Home building has dipped recently but is expected to pick up. The region has strived to expand its traded sectors in addition to the cornerstone tourism and health care industries. The Bend Venture Conference has been run in Bend for twenty years and brings entrepreneurs and angel investors together. Efforts to foster new local businesses also include regular Central Oregon PubTalks – networking events for people interested in entrepreneurship. These long- term efforts have borne fruit, with Bend ranking No. 17 for young firm employment share.

The Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, Alabama metro ranks 47th overall, and 10th among heartland metros. The region, with the Gulf of Mexico to the south and the Mobile Bay shore on the southwest, has large retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. Together, these two sectors employed close to 40% of non-farm workers in 2023. These opportunities for shopping, dining and recreation, along with the many golf courses and beaches have long drawn retirees and tourists to the metro. Like in Bend and Bozeman, the region is also drawing in relocating workers from nearby Mobile as commuters are willing to drive further seeking a suburban lifestyle. It has strong momentum, placing 16th on this metric due to its recent rapid employment growth. In 2022, Novelis, an advanced aluminum manufacturer broke ground on a low-carbon aluminum recycling and rolling facility in Bay Minette in the middle of the metro.19 The plant, expected to be completed in 2026, represents a $4.1 billion investment, and adds to the diversification of the metro’s economy.20

Real estate development and attracting new residents and visitors

A number of metros have seen tourism and relocations spur large real estate developments. After several years of swift expansion, these metros are now growing at a more moderate pace.

Last year’s top metro, Wildwood-The Villages, Florida ranks No. 2 in this edition. The region continues to attract a steady stream of retirees to The Villages, a 55+ community with a wealth of amenities. Leisure offerings onsite include more than 50 golf courses, along with social clubs and parks.21 The expanding retail and dining sectors have helped fuel employment growth, which was No. 4 nationally on our short-term measure. The pace at which the Wildwood-The Villages metro has been adding jobs has slowed recently, with employment momentum ranking No. 37 compared with ranking first on the 5-year measure. The Villages development continues to expand, for example building 3,200 new homes in Leesburg in 2023 and purchasing more than 3,000 acres to make space for future expansion.22 Construction-related occupations are highly in demand and plans to build worker housing for staff providing services for residents of the Villages development will add to this demand. Older adults already make up more than 57% of the population in the Wildwood-The Villages metro, creating opportunities to offer health care servicesto serve this community.23 Tourists are also drawn to visit the region to enjoy outdoor recreation, including fishing and boating. Other high scoring Florida metros on our list that also leverage appealing weather, natural beauty, and amenities to draw both tourists and retirees include Naples-Marco Island (No. 5), Punta Gorda (No. 6), and North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota (No. 12).

The Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida metro ranks No. 29 this year. Known for its coastline and balmy south Florida weather, the region is a national and international tourist destination. In 2023, 4.37 million overseas visitors chose to come to the Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall metro area, second only to the New York City metro.24 Concerns about inflation and reduction of disposable income may act as a curb on tourism. However, consumer research indicates that travel is a high priority expenditure, and many people will choose to economize elsewhere in order to make a trip.25 House prices rose dramatically between the third quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2024, increasing by 77% over the four years, making it unaffordable for many residents. Affluent home buyers buoyed the Miami real estate market in 2024, buying high end homes in cash, even as housing markets in other Florida metros cooled slightly.26 The speed of home price appreciation has slowed, and prices may drop in the coming year. Florida’s Live Local Act provides credits and incentives to develop affordable and workforce housing that could help bolster thesupply of non-luxury housing being constructed in the metro.27

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tennessee placed No. 45 overall, and ranked 8th among heartland metros. Branded the “Music City” thanks to its strong ties to country music, Nashville attracts cultural visitors year-round. In 2023, Nashville welcomed a record breaking 16.8 million visitors.28 The metro area has 510 hotels with more than 58,000 rooms, a fifth of which were added in the last six years.29 An additional 2,000 rooms are currently being built with another 12,000 at various stages of the planning pipeline. These major real estate developments have helped keep construction crews busy, and overall employment growth on our 5-year measure ranked No. 21. Housing is also in demand, as the region is experiencing significant net migration. Ranked in the top 10 among large metros, Nashville-Davidson- Murfreesboro-Franklin has a mix of industries, including health care and music recording and distribution, and is not dependent on tourism alone. The industry clusters spurred by Vanderbilt University, located in Nashville, are discussed in a later section. The presence of multiple universities contributes to its large educated workforce and its competitive business costs contributed to attracting the headquarters of Oracle, a database software company, from Texas. This relocation includes a major real estate investment, with a new 1.2 million square foot riverfront campus planned.30

As with previous reports, quality of life amenities like outdoor recreation and scenic views, contributed to dynamic metros. Tourism continues to drive economies possessing natural amenities, while retirees continue to drive growth particularly in southern states like Alabama and Florida. Real estate development, and the associated construction boom, has also contributed to the dynamism of tourist-driven economies as they attempt to maintain affordable housing for their workforces.

ENERGY AND MINING DEPENDENT METROS

Consistent with previous issues of the Most Dynamic Metros report, oil and gas extraction plays an influential role in the 2024 rankings. This largely explains why eight Texas metros are in the top 100, ten if you include Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, and Odessa Texas which rank 102 and 103, respectively. In addition, Greeley, Colorado, Slidell-Mandeville- Covington, Louisiana and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma are also top 100 metros with sizeable oil and gas extraction industries. San Angelo, Texas, ranked 98 overall and 19 among heartland metros, has seen stable employment but generous jumps in average pay and GDP growth due to exports of natural gas to Europe.

However, there are other mining dependencies that manifest in this year’s rankings. For example, an important factor driving El Centro, California’s rise to No. 30 is its massive lithium deposit beneath the Salton Sea, causing the region to be referred to as “Lithium Valley.”

Oil and Gas Extraction

As the world shook off the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose in response to re-engaged industrial activity and transportation, but it skyrocketed to $123.64 per barrel on March 8, 2022 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; prices declined through the second half of the year to moderate around $80 per barrel through 2023.31 Similarly, Henry Hub natural gas prices rose through the first two-thirds of 2022, peaking at $9.85 per million BTU on August 22, 2022. Prices gradually declined to moderate between $2 and $2.50 per million BTU during 2023.32 These price ranges are sufficient to induce oil and gas production and exploration, especially in well-developed production regions such as the Permian Basin. Price support for natural gas also stemmed from demand in Europe, as countries weaned themselves from Russian-supplied natural gas as one response to the Ukraine invasion.33 Thus, oil and gas dependent regions fared well through 2022 and 2023.

The No. 1 metro this year, Midland, Texas, has a 100- year history with oil and gas extraction. Its ranking as the highest per capita income and 2022-2023 GDP growth, along with a third-place ranking for 2022-2023 employment growth, justify its top seat. Odessa, Texas, Midland’s western neighbor and No. 103 in our ranking, shares its long history in oil and gas extraction, as they lie at the heart of the Permian Basin, the largest shale oil play in the U.S.

Midland and Odessa are working together to reduce the environmental impact of oil and gas extraction through innovations in carbon-capture technology, such as displacing diesel fuel used to power generators and equipment with natural gas from exploration sites (such gas is normally flared, or burnt off). Additionally, these communities are leaning into the vast open lands, ample sunshine and gusty winds that characterize their location by encouraging wind and solar power generation. The region produces nearly 30 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity, and more than one-fifth of the electricity delivered to the grid came from wind sources in 2022.34

To support these critical industries to the region, the Permian Energy Development Lab (PEDL) was established with support from a National Science Foundation (NSF) Regional Innovation Engines development grant in 2023. The PEDL is a coalition of federal laboratories, institutions of higher education, state and local governments and corporations committed to developing and testing cleaner and more efficient technologies for existing energy systems.35

Greeley, Colorado moves up to the No. 15 spot, up 116 positions from last year’s report. Weld County, of which Greeley is the county-seat, accounts for nearly 80% of the oil produced in Colorado.36 With 21 times the U.S. share of total employment in mining, it ranks in the top 10 counties in the country for mining employment. Like Midland and Odessa, Greeley’s cost of production is low enough that declining oil prices during the latter half of 2022 did not significantly impact production from the region. But, Greeley is also an agricultural region that benefited from rising beef prices in the beginning of 2022, when beef prices peaked at $2.75 per pound in March.37 These commodity dynamics explain Greeley’s impressive 18.5% change in annual GDP, the second highest in the country. Greeley also experienced rapid one-year employment growth of 4.1% and has an impressive 14.2% of its employment at firms less than 6 years old. These latter statistics could stem from the influx of new residents, as Greeley was one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the U.S. between 2010 and 2020, given its ideal location between Fort Collins and Denver and relative affordability to these notoriously housing constrained regions.

Lithium

But oil and gas are not the only minerals driving economic development among metropolitan areas. In our Most Dynamic Micropolitans 2024 report, we highlighted growth occurring near Magnolia, Arkansas due to potential lithium mining in the Smackover Formation, which the United States Geological Survey estimates contains between 5 and 19 million tons of lithium reserves – enough to meet the projected demand for car batteries in 2030 nine times.38 El Centro, California, which moved up 137 spots to 30 overall, is also cashing in on lithium. This agricultural region, which produces roughly two-thirds of all U.S. vegetables during winter months, includes a majority of the Salton Sea which contains a number of economically valuable minerals, including at least two million metric tons of lithium.39 While geothermal power generation from Salton Sea has occurred for decades, and is the U.S.’s largest capacity of this type of power generation and the second largest globally, and the presence of minerals in the brine pumped up for power generation has been known, it wasn’t until recently that there was an economic case for salvaging the minerals from the brine before it was returned underground.40,41

While not the U.S.’s largest deposit of lithium, “Lithium Valley’s” potential lies in the accessibility of the lithium. It’s already being brought to the surface in the steam that powers the 11 geothermal energy plants along Salton Sea, so California Energy Commission and the U.S. Department of Energy are working with several companies to capture the highly demanded mineral from the brine before returning the brine underground. If these companies succeed, the time to market for the harvested lithium would be greatly reduced with low environmental impact, positioning the U.S. as a global competitor in the lithium market. Building upon this resource, University of California, Riverside received $500,000 in 2023 as an Economic Development Agency (EDA) Tech Hub Strategy Development grantee to further develop lithium extraction and building an advanced-energy economy in Southern California.42

El Centro is also leveraging its agricultural and energy strengths to build capacity and produce biofuels and biodiesel from algae and biomass as well as ethanol production. El Centro is considered a global leader in bio-crude production from algae.43 Collectively, El Centro will be a metro area to watch, as it develops several alternative energy resources that could disrupt global energy supply chains.

While oil and gas extraction is still the dominant mining activity in terms of value, this year’s high ranking and most improved metropolitan areas demonstrate the growth in alternative energy sources. Additionally, identification and development of large, domestic lithium stores creates tremendous opportunities for battery manufacturing and energy storage options.

HEARTLAND ACADEMIA AS ECONOMIC ENGINES

The top performing heartland metros in this year’s ranking share their identity as college-anchored towns. The research universities are all a nexus for talent generation and a source for highly-skilled workers for the STEM and business sectors that are crucial to the regional economy. Six of the top ten metros in the heartland region are home to research universities, demonstrating the influence of academia on local economic dynamism in recent years. These centers of excellence in the six top-performing heartland metros are presented in the table below.

The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas metro (No. 4) has consistently ranked among the top 10 since the inception of the metro report, earning special recognition in the 2023 edition of Most Dynamic Metros as a member of the prestigious “five-timers club.” The University of Texas at Austin has played a major role in transforming the Austin metro (nicknamed the Silicon Hills) into a large tech hub competing against Silicon Valley and San Francisco by supplying a deep talent pool and a culture that actively embraces large tech firms for their economic sustainability. Initiatives such as the IC2 Instituteand Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) are examples of its contributions to advanced research by using supercomputing resources to develop AI, machine learning, cyberinfrastructure, and cloud computing.44,45 These resources and highly skilled workforce position Austin as a desirable location for tech companies and tech innovation, as reflected in its rankings for medium-term employment and annual average pay growth and high per capital income.

The College Station-Bryan metro in Texas (No. 21), is home to Texas A&M University, with an enrollment of more than 79,000 total students in Fall 2024. Texas A&M University is a major research university, investing $1.1 billion in research and development (R&D) in 2021, according to the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES).46 The university’s role in developing a skilled, STEM workforce make it attractive for company expansions and attraction, contributing to the metro’s stellar employment and real GDP growth.

In Alabama, the Auburn-Opelika (No. 23) and Huntsville (No. 38) metros shine as the state’s economic drivers through their respective strengths in higher education, research, and industry collaboration. Auburn University is the economic engine of the Auburn-Opelika region, and the Huntsville economy thrives on its historic ties to aerospace technology research conducted at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). Together, these Alabaman metros demonstrate the power of higher education, innovation, and industry partnerships in shaping regional and state-wide economic sustainability. Auburn’s entrepreneurial initiatives such as the New Venture Accelerator under Raymond J. Harbert College of Business and the Auburn Research and Technology Foundation, cultivate research skills through college students, alumni, and faculties which can be turned into start-up businesses. These initiatives contribute to the region’s high performance in our ranking by being No. 58 for young firm employment share and No. 6 and 11 for short-term employment growth and employment momentum, respectively.

TABLE 2. TOP PERFORMING HEARTLAND METROS WITH RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES

RegionOverall RankHeartland RankUniversity
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX42University of Texas at Austin
College Station-Bryan, TX214Texas A&M University
Auburn-Opelika, AL235Auburn University
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR366University of Arkansas
Huntsville, AL387University of Alabama in Huntsville
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN458Vanderbilt University

The Huntsville metro, on the other hand, has earned its reputation as “Rocket City” due to its leadership in space research and technology thanks to the presence of NASA. Like Texas A&M, the University of Alabama in Huntsville is a STEM engine producing a steady pipeline of talent for NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center and the U.S. Army’s Redstone Arsenal. The Huntsville metro’s 5-year employment growth signals strong demand for labor in the metro area, rising by 14.8% between 2018 and 2023 (ranked 11th). This economic strength is also complemented by their 2018-2023 and 2022-2023 real GDP growth (26.2%, ranked 19th; and 6.0%, ranked 30th, respectively). The strong economic indicators in employment and real GDP growth are partially fueled by UAH’s strategic partnerships with NASA and the Department of Defense.

The most dynamic metro in Arkansas is the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers region (No. 36). Known as Northwest Arkansas, or NWA, it is home to three fortune 500 companies (Walmart, J.B. Hunt, and Tyson Foods). The region needs a steady supply of high-skilled talent to fuel the local economy anchored by these firms, visible in the five-year employment growth of 12.9% (ranked 18th). The NWA metro is the 31st fastest growing metro in the country, with real GDP growth of 23.4% over the five-year period between 2018-2023. This has translated into economic well- being, with the NWA metro claiming the 8th highest per capita personal income in 2023 of $97,953, after adjusting for regional price parity. Of the 107 young firms (since 2019) created by University of Arkansas- Fayetteville students and alumni, the ongoing economic impact of $52.1 million and $2.4 milliontax collections were created.47 A Heartland Forward report estimates that doubling University of Arkansas’College of Engineering graduates and research output over the next 15 years could generate $3.9 billion in economic value and contribute to a 1.6% increase in the state’s GDP, creating 19,000 new jobs by 2038. These estimates help explain the explosive growth in the region.

The Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin metro (No. 45) is a central hub of economic activity in Tennessee strengthened by its reputation as a center for the health care, biotech, and entertainment industries. A contributor to this dynamism is Vanderbilt University, an historic institution located in Nashville. In 2023, Vanderbilt and its Medical Center had a combined R&D expenditure of more than $1 billion, 24th highest in the nation.48 Vanderbilt’s medical center is one of the largest employers in the state of Tennessee and crucial to the economic functioning of the Nashville metro. It addresses the public health needs by contributing $952 million to the local community and other benefits during fiscal year 2023.49 This investment helps boost the medium-term employment and real GDP growth and supports a high quality of life for the region.

The Heartland’s research universities showcase how higher education can serve as an engine for regional, state-wide, and nationwide economic growth. Across metros like Austin, Huntsville, Fayetteville, and Nashville, these academic institutions have led advancements in research and development in STEM fields and business enterprises while producing highly-skilled workers. From UT Austin’s significant role in shaping the landscape of the Silicon Hills to Vanderbilt’s breakthroughs in medical research, these heartland universities not only adapt to industry needs, but also embrace collaborations. With their public- private partnerships, these college towns continue to bolster the heartland’s regional competitiveness.

CONCLUSION

The 2024 Most Dynamic Metropolitans Report highlights the diverse economic trajectories of metropolitan statistical areas across the United States, providing valuable insights into employment growth, average annual pay, real GDP, per capita income, and entrepreneurial activity. Regions like Midland, Texas, with its oil-driven economy, and Bozeman, Montana, with its blend of outdoor amenities and technological advancements, showcase the variety of strategies fostering regional success. These rankings underscore critical themes and offer lessons for policymakers aiming to sustain or improve their own regions’ economic performance.

Key Findings:

  1. Economic Diversification:
    Successful metros like Bozeman, Bend, and Austin leverage their natural assets while diversifying into sectors like tech, advanced manufacturing, and healthcare.
  2. Innovation and Entrepreneurship:
    High-performing regions, including Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and the Central Valley, capitalize on young firm intensity and knowledge-driven sectors.
  3. Higher Education as an Economic Driver:
    Metros like Austin, Huntsville, and Fayetteville thrive due to their research universities, which produce skilled labor and foster public-private partnerships.
  4. Resilience in Resource-Rich Regions
    Energy-driven metros, including Midland and Greeley, exemplify how leveraging natural resources alongside clean-energy innovations can ensure sustainability.

Policy Recommendations:

  1. Support Workforce Development:
    • Collaborate with local universities, community colleges, and industry leaders to create targeted training programs that align with regional economic needs.
    • Incentivize retraining programs in emerging fields like AI, ag-tech, and clean energy to support workforce adaptability.
  2. Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship:
    • Establish or enhance incubators and accelerators, focusing on young firms and startups in knowledge-intensive sectors.
    • Provide grants and tax incentives to spur innovation in areas like clean energy, semiconductor manufacturing, and AI applications.
  3. Invest in Housing and Infrastructure:
    • Address housing affordability to attract and retain talent by incentivizing the development of affordable and workforce housing.
    • Modernize transportation and digital infrastructure to support commuting, remote work, and business expansion.
  4. Leverage Natural and Academic Assets:
    • Promote eco-tourism and outdoor recreation while balancing conservation efforts to sustain regional growth.
    • Support research and development in collaboration with universities, particularly in STEM fields, to drive innovation and retain local talent.
  5. Encourage Regional Collaboration:
    • Develop multi-state and regional partnerships to share resources, address common challenges, and amplify economic impact.
    • Coordinate efforts between urban centers and their surrounding rural or micropolitan areas to create a more cohesive economic ecosystem.

Next Steps:

To remain competitive, policymakers must focus on fostering inclusive growth, reducing regional disparities, and addressing affordability challenges. By aligning state and local policies with the specific needs and strengths of their regions, officials can lay the foundation for sustainable economic development. This report serves as a blueprint for proactive decision-making and strategic investment to ensure future dynamism and prosperity.

Appendix: Metrics for Metropolitan Areas by Overall Rank

ENDNOTES

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  4. Annual and Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023 (CBSA-MET-EST2023- COMP)
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  18. Bridge Economic Development. (June 2023) City of Bozeman Economic Vitality Strategy. https://bridgeed.com/wp-content/uploads/Economic-Vitality-Strategy-Bozeman-Montana.pdf
  19. Novelis breaks ground on $2.5 billion aluminum recycling & rolling plant. (n.d.). Novelis Inc. https://investors.novelis.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/43/novelis-breaks-ground-on-2-5-billion-aluminum-recycling-rolling-plant
  20. John Sharp, jsharp@al.com. (2024, February 22). New projections for Alabama aluminum plant: $4.1 billion, late 2026 completion. Al. https://www.al.com/news/2024/02/new-projections-for-alabama-aluminum-plant-41-billion-late-2026-completion.html
  21. The Villages. (2024, October 25). Golf in the Villages®: World-Class courses and facilities. https://www.thevillages.com/golf/
  22. Streit, K. (2023, September 7). The Villages moving deeper into Leesburg with an additional 3,200 acres. Spectrum News 13. Retrieved January 10, 2025, from https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2023/09/07/the-villages-moving-deeper-into-leesburg
  23. QuickFacts: Sumter County, Florida. (n.d.). Census.gov. Retrieved January 10, 2025, from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/sumtercountyflorida/PST045223
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  26. San Juan, R. (2025, May 25). Why homebuyers are pouring into South Florida despite record- breaking high prices. Miami Herald. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article288645785.html
  27. Florida Housing Coalition. (2024, October 18). Live Local Act – Florida Housing Coalition. Florida Housing Coalition – Connect. Collaborate. Cultivate. https://flhousing.org/live-local-act/
  28. Abrams, C. (2024, June 2). In the face of inflation, Nashville tourism breaks records. WPLN News. https://wpln.org/post/in-the-face-of-inflation-nashville-tourism-breaks-records/
  29. Research & hospitality stats. (2024, June 6). Visit Nashville TN. https://www.visitmusiccity.com/research
  30. Oracle’s Larry Ellison says Nashville campus will be company’s “world headquarters” | AP News. (2024, April 24). AP News. https://apnews.com/article/oracle-larry-ellison-nashville-headquarters-health-care-cf74172176f6c90210e8ac96e1ff6f52
  31. Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis. (2025a, January 2). Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma. FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO
  32. Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis. (2025, January 2). Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price. FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP
  33. Hardy, B. (2024, September). San Angelo TX. Moody’s Analytics.
  34. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (2023, May 9). Global Energy producer Midland–Odessa seeks economic stability, end to boom-and-bust. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0509
  35. Permian Energy Development Lab. (n.d.). What is the Permian Energy Development Lab?. About. https://pedl.tech/about
  36. Walker, K. (2024). Greeley CO. Moody’s Analytics.
  37. Ibid.
  38. Amgott, S. (2024, October 21). Unlocking Arkansas’ hidden treasure: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in the Smackover Formation: U.S. geological survey. Unlocking Arkansas’ Hidden Treasure: USGS Uses Machine Learning to Show Large Lithium Potential in the Smackover Formation | U.S. Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/unlocking-arkansas-hidden-treasure-usgs-uses-machine-learning-show-large
  39. McKibben, M. A., Elders, W., & Raju, A. S. K. (2021). Lithium and Other Geothermal Mineral and Energy Resources Beneath the Salton Sea. In Crisis at the Salton Sea: The Vital Role of Science (pp. 69–83). essay, University of California, Riverside.
  40. Imperial Valley Economic Development Corporation. (2025). Industries. https://ivedc.com/region/industries
  41. Snyder, J. (2024, February 22). Power and promise beneath the Salton Sea. Power and Promise Beneath the Salton Sea. ttps://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/17ecd765b2764ba4be83edb4d2b407d2
  42. U.S. Economic Development Administration. (n.d.). Lithium Valley Clean Tech Strategy Development Consortium. 2023 Tech Hubs Designees and Strategy Development Grant Recipients. https://www.eda.gov/funding/programs/regional-technology-and-innovation-hubs/2023/Lithium-Valley-Clean-Tech-Strategy-Development-Consortium
  43. Imperial Valley Economic Development Corporation. (2025). Biofuels. https://www.ivedc.com/region/industries/biofuels
  44. Echeverri-Carroll, E., & Oden, M. (2016, July 31). Preliminary Assessment of the Factors That Led Austin to Become a High-Tech Entrepreneurial City. IC2 Institute.
  45. Singer, F. (2024, September 4). Vista AI-focused supercomputer in production for open science community. Texas Advanced Computing Center. Retrieved from https://tacc.utexas.edu/news/latest-news/2024/09/04/vista-ai-focused-supercomputer-in-production-for-open-science-community/
  46. National Science Foundation. (2023). Higher education R&D expenditures: Fiscal year 2021 (NSF 23-303). Retrieved from https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf23303
  47. University of Arkansas.Economic impact. Retrieved from https://www.uark.edu/economic-impact/#%3A~%3Atext%3DDriving%20Arkansas%20Business%26text%3DThe%20university%20helped%20create%20and%2C107%20active%20businesses%20since%202019.
  48. National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics. Higher Education Research and Development (HERD) Survey data. Retrieved from https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/profiles/site?method=rankingBySource&ds=herd
  49. Vanderbilt Health. (2024). 2024 impact report. Retrieved from https://www.vumc.org/about/sites/default/files/public_files/VH_2024_ImpactReport_M2jp_All.pdf
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