Heartland Forward Unemployment Insurance Monitor
The monitor tracks weekly unemployment insurance data to understand how economies across different states are responding to the COVID-19 induced recession.
The monitor tracks weekly unemployment insurance data to understand how economies across different states are responding to the COVID-19 induced recession.
Seasonally adjusted and unadjusted initial claims both fell for the week ending December 26; the declines are likely the result of the unusually large number of unemployed workers having fewer days to file in person, with many unemployment offices closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas. Congress was able to pass a new economic stimulus package, which includes a $300-per-week federal unemployment benefit.
While actual initial claims fell slightly, seasonally adjusted claims rose again and continuing claims rose above 20 million. COVID restrictions have decreased seasonal employment gains, and have been reinforced by consumer pessimism as pandemic relief programs end on December 31 with little hope for a new federal relief package.
Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims for the week ending December 5 rose by 19 percent, and the insured unemployment rates for the US, Heartland and non-Heartland regions increased for the first time since September. Delays in processing initial claims (due to the Thanksgiving holiday) and increases in business restrictions in some states due to COVID-19 case spikes are likely the cause.
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 28 fell by 9.5 percent; this follows a 4 percent increase in unemployment claims for the week ending November 21. More than 20 million Americans continued receiving unemployment insurance benefits.
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 14 rose by 4.4 percent. Louisiana realized the greatest increase in initial claims, likely connected to impacts from Hurricane Zeta. Illinois had the second highest increase, likely connected with a surge in COVID-19 cases. More than 20 million Americans continued receiving unemployment insurance benefits.
Unemployment claims for the week ending November 7 fell by 6.8 percent from the previous week’s revised seasonally adjusted values. With only 374,000 less persons receiving benefits the week of October 24, more than 21 million Americans continued receiving unemployment insurance benefits.
Unemployment claims for the week ending October 31 fell by a modest 0.1 percent from the previous week, though the decline in continuing claims accelerated slightly with 1.1 million less persons receiving benefits the week of October 17.
Initial unemployment claims fell by 5 percent last week, continuing a surprising decline that is coinciding with a significant increase in US COVID-19 cases. State-level trends are varied, with some Midwest and Mountain West states seeing claim increases in alignment with their COVID-19 case increases.
Initial unemployment claims fell by 6.5 percent last week, and the total number of persons receiving UI benefits fell by over 1 million the week of October 3. Analysts were expecting a slight increase in unemployment claims, but the actual numbers suggest growth in employment.
COVID-19 presents great challenges to Northwest Arkansas (NWA) as it does to every other community, but the region is in strong standing to weather this global pandemic.
Initial unemployment claims rose significantly last week, as nearly 80,000 more people applied for unemployment insurance benefits than in the prior week. As additional federal stimulus grows less likely and COVID cases rise throughout the Midwest, employment growth has seemingly stalled jeopardizing the economic recovery.
New report offers data-driven recommendations for NWA leaders and lessons for other communities navigating the economic crisis
Initial unemployment claims remained steady with last week; seasonally adjusted claims fell by 1.1 percent, but unadjusted claims rose by 0.7 percent. However, continuing claims as of September 19, 2020, fell by 1 million persons, bring the total continuing claims to 25.5 million persons.
Nationwide data indicates the economic effects of the pandemic have been disproportionately harmful to women’s careers.
New unemployment claims fell during the week ending September 26, 2020. This resumes the modest decline in unemployment insurance claims which started in August. However, more than 26.5 million persons continue to claim unemployment insurance, as of September 12, 2020.
New unemployment claims rose during the week ending September 19, 2020. While the pandemic recovery remains lethargic, employment growth in California and Florida is also being limited by hurricanes and wildfires.
While retail businesses in 10 states across the Heartland received a share of PPP loans greater than or equal to their share of total firms, retail businesses in the other 10 states and other services businesses in all states did not receive their fair share. This could be due to the types of businesses that make up these industries and how the PPP loans were distributed.
While new UI claims fell by 0.7 percent, this was less than expected due to seasonal adjustments, and more than 29.7 million Americans continued receiving UI benefits during the week ending August 29, 2020. This reinforces expectations pre-pandemic job levels will not be realized for quite some time.
Unemployment claims remained under 1 million for the week ending September 5, 2020, but they indicated no improvement in labor market conditions. Seasonally-adjusted initial UI claims were unchanged and unadjusted claims rose 2.4 percent.
Manufacturers in Ohio had the highest participation rate in PPP among Heartland states. In roughly one-third of Heartland states, manufacturers received a greater share of PPP loans than they represented among firms. Among the remaining 13 states, the manufacturers’ share of PPP loans in seven states were within ten percent of their share of all employer firms.
Initial UI claims fell again this week, this time dropping below the 1 million claims threshold. Forty states, the Heartland and the US all continued to realize decreases in IUR, indicating employment gains.
Hospitality industry businesses across the Heartland likely did not receive their fair share of loans in PPP.
Despite 32 states being authorized to issue unemployment insurance benefits from FEMA Disaster Relief Funds, initial claims fell slightly for the week ending August 22, 2020. The insured unemployment rate for the nation and Heartland both declined for the week ending August 15, 2020.
Across racial and ethnic categories, Hispanic female-owned businesses received their fair share of PPP loans; in most states, however, female-owned businesses across all five racial categories did not receive a proportionate share of PPP loans to employer firms.
Unemployment insurance claims rose during the week ending August 15, 2020. The rise in claims follows an executive order to utilize FEMA Disaster Relief Funds to provide $300 per week in unemployment benefits.
Unemployment insurance claims continued to decline during the week ending August 8, 2020, and insured unemployment rates also continued to trend down for the week ending August 1, 2020. While the July monthly jobs report noted job growth, the unemployment claims data indicates that employment remains significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Asian-owned businesses are more likely to be employer firms, and they likely received an equitable share of PPP loans in most Heartland states. American Indian-owned firms, which are much more likely to be non-employer firms, likely did not receive their fair share of PPP loans throughout the Heartland. The disparate employment pattern may explain in part why Asian-owned firms faired better than American Indian-owned firms in receiving PPP loans.
After two consecutive weeks of increases in initial unemployment claims, claims fell by 249,000 to 1,186,000, the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. The decline is at least partially due to the end of the $600 enhance unemployment benefit provided in the Cares Act, the loss of which reducing the incentive to file a claim.
The vast majority of Black- and Hispanic-owned businesses in the Heartland do not have employees, and that may have resulted in the two groups receiving inequitable shares of Payroll Protection Program loans.
Ross DeVol and Angie Cooper
We are all invested in the idea of upward economic mobility, grounded in the notion that with hard work, we can build a better life for ourselves, our communities and our children. Unfortunately, the analysis in this report makes it clear that the distribution of opportunity has been and continues to be uneven.
The week ending July 25, 2020, was the 19th week during which over 1 million initial claims were filed. Consistent with the estimated 2nd quarter GDP decline of 32.9 percent, the US economy ails from the pandemic-induced recession.
The week ending July 18, 2020, was the 17th week during which over 1 million initial claims were filed. With 32 states realizing an increase in initial UI claims, it also marked the first time since March that seasonally adjusted claims increased from the previous week.
The week ending July 4, 2020, was the 16th week during which over 1 million initial claims were filed. With 32 states realizing an increase in initial UI claims, it also marked the first time since March that seasonally unadjusted claims increased from the previous week.
Entrepreneurs and young firms are the future major employers and they need support.
Despite an optimistic jobs report last week, recessionary effects, like decreasing orders for manufactured goods and lackluster consumer spending, are contributing to the numbers of those furloughed or laid off. Additionally, some states are reinstating restrictions on businesses, such as closing bars and increasing limits on restaurant capacity, to limit growth in COVID-19 cases.
With almost no change in the number of initial unemployment claims over last week, some state economies may be worse off this week than last. Several southern and western states have realized rises in COVID-19 cases, and a few states are reinstating measures to limit its spread. These efforts, combined with employees contracting or quarantining due to COVID-19 exposure, is hampering employers in hiring back furloughed employees.
As states continue to lift restrictions on businesses, hiring is stagnant, even though spending is increasing somewhat. According to Chetty et al. (2020)1, until high-income households emerge from isolation and resume spending at pre-pandemic levels employment will not grow significantly. New COVID-19 hotspots throughout the country further complicate the situation as workers seek assistance while they quarantine and/or recover.
Businesses continue to face challenges to increasing production, sales and employment levels, and rising COVID-19 cases in many places across the country further complicate these processes (e.g., workers having to quarantine after exposure, limiting available workers).
Rising COVID-19 cases and safety requirements, supply chain issues, and childcare issues are some of the factors making it difficult for businesses to return to pre-pandemic production and employment levels. The worst-hit states continue to be those dependent on tourism and manufacturing.
As states continue to reopen their economies, insured unemployment rates fell in 37 states, indicating that fewer workers are receiving unemployment insurance benefits. However, 13 states saw their insured unemployment rate increase, and factors like limited capacity requirements at restaurants and retailers, consumer fears, and supply chain disruptions continued to weigh down employment growth.
This week’s report revealed that roughly 1.9 million initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed the week ending May 23, 2020. An additional 1.2 million claims were filed for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program.
This week’s report revealed that nearly 2.44 million initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed the week ending May 16, 2020. An additional 2.23 million initial claims were filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which covers self-employed, contract and part-time workers. Thirty-two states saw their insured unemployment rates drop.
This week’s report revealed that nearly 2.98 million initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed the week ending May 9, 2020. Nineteen states saw their continued claims fall, suggesting that people may be going back to work in those states.
This week’s report revealed that nearly 3.17 million initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed the week ending May 2, 2020, suggesting that tomorrow’s release of the April jobs report will reveal record job losses. Only 6 states realized an increase in initial claims, and these increases were much lower than in previous weeks ranging from 3,125 to 27,337.
This industry-specific platform provides a single source for recommendations on how you can help the Arkansas economy recover from the effects of COVID-19. The information provided here is based on science, data, and the decision making of our state leaders and industry experts. Working smart, safe, and together makes Arkansas Ready for Business.
Manufacturing faces increased job losses due to COVID-19, but this presents the industry an opportunity to re-evaluate supply chains, introduce new products, and innovate – to leverage the Heartland’s resources and build resilient economies.
Initial unemployment claims continue to rise, though at a slower rate for the 3rd week in a row. Enhanced unemployment benefits pose a challenge to reopening the economy.
In addition to our analysis on initial and cumulative unemployment insurance claims by state, we introduce analysis on insured unemployment rates by state to better monitor responses to states that are reopening their economies.
New weekly unemployment insurance claims continue to moderate, but remain at levels unseen before the COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, new claims filed since March 1st are now above 20 percent of pre-outbreak employment in some states.
Michigan has been hit particularly hard, with the worst mortality rate in the country and the second-worst share of pre-outbreak employment that have filed unemployment insurance claims.
Because of the digital divide, not all parts of U.S. have benefited from the utility of broadband connectivity during the coronavirus pandemic
New weekly unemployment insurance claims have come down slightly from last week's record-setting levels. Looking at the unemployment insurance data and data on confirmed COVID-19 cases, Louisiana is being severely impacted from both a health and economic perspective.
New unemployment insurance claims rose again for the U.S. and most states, as the fallout from the coronavirus continues.
The most extensive negative consequences of COVID-19 on the Heartland will be attributable to the related, but indirect impacts, of reduced oil and gas exploration and extraction operations
The Heartland is home to a significant portion of the United State’s airlines and aerospace manufacturing. Given the huge drop-off in airline travel and the significant role that travel, tourism, airlines, and aerospace manufacturing play in the Heartland's economy, we wanted to dive into this area further.
The economic slowdown resulting from the coronavirus outbreak has led to massive increases in new unemployment insurance claims
How COVID-19 will impact communities in the Heartland and beyond, and how policymakers can respond
Recent federal changes to the unemployment insurance (UI) program authorized employee eligibility under certain conditions related to COVID-19
The contributors address a fundamental topic for future economic success
in the Heartland: Will Millennials return and remain at higher rates?
First-Of-Its-Kind Institute Will Focus On Research And Policy Recommendations To Foster Economic Renewal In America's Heartland
Heartland States Lag Behind Coastal States in the Innovation Economy
For more than half a century the U.S. has maintained a competitive edge in the world economy in large measure because of its leadership in research and innovation. To assume that this will continue without change is naive.
The American research university is the nation’s best defense against economic competition from the rest of the world. Research shouldn’t be confined to a library, lab, or lecture hall. When it comes to America’s research universities, across the Heartland and beyond, data show that when universities and communities collaborate, the positive impacts on the workforce, tax base, startup activity and economy opportunity grow exponentially.
5G, the fifth generation of wireless communications, has the potential to make the opportunity cost of rural living much larger, maybe insurmountably so.
There is little written analysis attempting to explain the geography of the American Heartland and the emerging term, New American Heartland, in a cohesive manner. This paper explores the origin of the term, Heartland and traces through a series of predecessor terms and how the use of the American Heartland term evolved over time.
The State of the Heartland: Factbook 2018 benchmarks the performance of the 19-state American “Heartland” on 26 socioeconomic measures and is intended to help Heartland leaders and citizens better comprehend the region’s current trajectory at a time of rapid economic and social change.