The national demand for those trained in the skilled trades is surging, and America’s next-generation infrastructure goals depend on expanding the skilled trades workforce. The United States leads the world in data center construction, with more than eight times the number of data centers than its leading competitor—the United Kingdom. What’s more, this investment in AI infrastructure is only increasing with 40% of the projected $7 trillion invested in data center construction globally to be directed towards the United States by 2030. With trillions on the line, and the need for skilled trades ever increasing, states have an opportunity to prepare their workforces for significant growth and investment potential.

Heartland Forward has recently conducted research which aims to understand the supply and demand of the skilled trades across U.S. states by evaluating the relationship between employment growth and median wage increase between 2019 and 2024. The findings showed an overall rising demand for skilled labor, with two trades leading in greatest growth potential: electricians and HVAC/R technicians.

This is due, in great part, to the rapid development of AI and the infrastructure needed to support that growth, as well as increased domestic manufacturing goals, reshoring efforts and an increased housing demand. Data centers in particular will rely heavily on electrical and cooling systems to operate, driving an increased need for electricians and HVAC/R technicians to serve as the backbone of that execution—promising sector growth and stable jobs. Heartland Forward’s research additionally suggests that certain states have recently outperformed others in workforce growth for these skilled professions, and could reap the greatest reward from this economic shift. 

Measuring the Supply: Employment Growth

The data discussed is depicted in the visualization below. On the Y axis of the bar graph is listed the percentage of the workforce that is employed in a particular trade. On the X axis is listed the year and region or state. 

What the data reveal for electricians: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Lightcast data, Tennessee leads the way in the employment growth rate of electricians nationwide at nearly 50% between 2019 and 2024. Arizona joins Tennessee in the upper tier of electrician growth rate at 46.72%, with Arkansas (34.50%) rounding out the top three performing states. When looking at electricians’ total share of the state workforce, Wyoming electricians stand out by making up nearly 1% of the state’s workforce — the highest share in the country. Interestingly, other Western states, such as Washington and Colorado, have seen a reduction in electricians’ share of the workforce. As a whole, the heartland outpaces non-heartland states in both electricians’ total share of the workforce and overall growth in employment since 2019. 

Policymakers and investors can take note: these findings show that the Heartland’s electrician workforce is already expanding at a pace that could power the nation’s next manufacturing and AI boom. States like Tennessee and Arkansas are positioned not just to meet national needs, but to lead them.

What the data reveals for HVAC/R: In the HVAC/R profession, Alaska and Michigan have seen significant employment growth since 2019 (83.45% and 55.43%, respectively), but Arkansas once again stands out in growth rate and HVAC/R technicians’ share of the state workforce. Arkansas HVAC/R technicians combine a 65.43% employment growth rate with a near 0.38% share of the state economy–a mark well above the heartland and non-heartland shares (which both sit at around 0.25%). Arkansas’s strong showing suggests that targeted workforce development could turn potential into sustained prosperity. No state, heartland or otherwise, demonstrates a substantial decline in HVAC/R’s share of the workforce, highlighting the importance of this trade in the evolving economy.      

Understanding the Impact of Demand: Median Wage Growth

The second visualization, directly below, allows for the analysis of overall employment growth (X Axis) alongside the percent growth in median wages (Y Axis) across all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. This allows for additional insights to be drawn regarding the strength of the skilled trades workforce within each state economy.

The visualization above can be loosely interpreted in the following four ways based on where states fall in each of the graph’s four quadrants. These conclusions are drawn based on the law of supply and demand.

• Capacity-Constrained States: The top-left quadrant contains states with limited growth in the skilled workforce between 2019 and 2024, which results in a shortage of skilled tradespeople compared to the demand. This drives up the amount members of the skilled workforce can charge for services, which in turn increases wages at a higher rate. The limited number of skilled tradespeople relative to demand, however, limits the capacity for large-scale projects in these states. 

• Limited Growth States: The bottom-left quadrant contains states where growth in the skilled trades has been stagnant or declined between 2019 and 2024, and also where wage gains have stagnated or fallen. This indicates there is no shortage in the skilled workforce, so demand for their services is low and thus wages remain flat. Low demand is likely driving skilled tradespeople to leave the industry, contributing to a decline in employment growth rates, likely due to limited infrastructure growth. 

• Lands of Investment Opportunity: The bottom-right quadrant includes states that are adept at growing their skilled trades workforce—states that are prepared for modern manufacturing and AI infrastructure investments. Their low wage growth rates reflect relatively low demand for those skilled trades in recent years, but this offers an opportunity for investment in new projects, which will help drive economic growth, grow wages and incentivize regional investment long-term.

• Success Stories: The top-right quadrant includes states that have been successful at growing their skilled trades in tandem with increasing median wages for their workers. This points to an increase in new investments in manufacturing and AI infrastructure, driving demand for the skilled trades and attracting talent into the skilled trades workforce. States in this quadrant are well-positioned for continued economic growth driven, in part, by their readiness to capitalize on increased manufacturing and AI development. Together, these quadrants reveal a roadmap for states: those that align workforce training, wage growth and strategic investment will be best prepared to capture new infrastructure opportunities in the AI era. 

Electrician Success Stories

Several states stand out for achieving both strong workforce expansion and wage growth. Mentioned earlier as high performers, Tennessee and Arizona have grown their electrician workforces by nearly 50 percent while also raising wages, showing healthy demand and healthy supply. In a signal of high-quality job creation, South Dakota expanded its electrician workforce by 25 percent while boosting median wages by 28 percent, demonstrating high performance in heartland states. 

Arkansas, with nearly 35 percent workforce growth but only modest wage movement, represents a state ready to mobilize for large-scale infrastructure projects at competitive cost.

Takeaway: States that can scale their electrician workforce affordably are positioned to attract the next wave of data centers, advanced manufacturing facilities and clean energy investments.

HVAC/R Success Stories: 

The HVAC/R profession tells a similar story of growth and opportunity.

Though Alaska leads the nation with an 83 percent employment increase since 2019, Michigan has grown its HVAC/R workforce by 55 percent while also raising wages, evidence of rising demand and strong economic multipliers. Further demonstrating heartland promise, Minnesota is the only state achieving over 30 percent growth in both employment and wages, reflecting balanced development.

Arkansas once again stands out with rapid employment growth and a strong workforce share, signaling readiness for major project investment that could soon translate into faster wage gains. 

Takeaway: The HVAC/R trade illustrates the broad reach of the modern industrial economy, from Alaska’s energy infrastructure to Arkansas’s data centers, and the growing returns for states investing in these essential skills.

Acknowledging the Indicator’s Potential

States that can sustainably increase the employment and compensation of their electricians and HVAC/R technicians position themselves to enter a cycle of broader economic development. 

Major infrastructural investors look to award projects to areas with the capacity to execute them effectively and at lower cost. In recent years, the erection of AI data centers and the complementary infrastructure needed to sustain them has provided a substantial opportunity for both electricians and HVAC/R technicians, placing them in high demand. These projects contribute to economic development–outside of the initial investments and economic generation of the projects themselves–through ripple effects such as the construction of housing to accommodate the project’s employees, increased local manufacturing of materials to resource construction, the need for additional labor to staff the construction and manufacturing and so on. In short, the combination of increased employment and a trend towards growing median wages for electricians and HVAC technicians may serve as indicators of economic potential. 

Putting it All Together

The biggest winners, according to this analysis, are states like Arizona and Tennessee, which find themselves in the ‘Success Stories’ quadrant for both electricians and HVAC/R technicians. Both states have documented instances of recent relevant success under their belt: 

• The federal government has recently issued a Request for Proposals for a large-scale AI data center project in Tennessee.
• Vermaland LLC has announced a $33 billion investment for a 3,300-acre data center campus in the Phoenix-Tucson corridor.

While Arkansas does not boast the wage growth commensurate with that of Tennessee and Arizona, its uniquely large employment growth rates in both skilled trades positions it as a potential economic riser in the coming years and tech power players are taking notice. Google recently announced a $4 billion data center investment in West Memphis, which points to Arkansas’ workforce growth paying off with rich opportunities for its skilled tradespeople that can, in turn, lead to higher wages. 

The national economy is racing to meet and shape the global pace of AI integration. Innovation will depend not only on technology but on the skilled workforce capable of powering, cooling and maintaining it.

A strong, skilled trades workforce strengthens not only project execution but also overall economic outcomes. States that build this capacity can deliver infrastructure more efficiently, reduce risk for major projects, attract new investment and drive long-term growth.

The message is clear. America’s path to an AI-enabled economy runs through this longstanding workforce. States that invest now in the training and education for electricians, HVAC/R technicians and other skilled professions will determine where innovation takes root and who benefits from its growth.

The heartland, with its expanding workforce, competitive wages, entrepreneurial spirit and proven capacity for large-scale infrastructure, is positioned to lead this next chapter. Building the digital future will require more than code. It will require craft, skill and the hands that keep America running.