For decades, computer science degree holders were regarded as some of the most in-demand employees in the American workforce. With the advent of artificial intelligence, however, some news outlets have reported the computer-science bubble is bursting. While it is easy to jump to concerning conclusions about the future of this sector, it is difficult to predict what the exact extent of the changes wrought by AI will be. The picture is complicated, and the need for nuanced data—which suggests perhaps a broader economic and workforce shift, rather than just employee displacement—has never been greater, so leaders in the heartland and across our country must respond effectively and seize the moment.  

Heartland Forward conducted a degree-specific analysis on the evolving job opportunities for computer science graduates, leveraging both Heartland Forward data analysis and that from a recent study conducted by Stanford University’s Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen. Both compared AI displacement in software development jobs, the most common profession for computer science graduates, across age groups and demonstrated insights with major implications for young computer scientists in the US and in the heartland. 

The Stanford study, titled “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” presents two particular facts that speak to the employment of young computer scientists and provide insights that will be key for heartland adaptation and economic growth:

• “Employment for young workers has declined in AI-exposed occupations.”
  Young computer scientists (aged 22-25) are being displaced from software development jobs in greater numbers as a result of AI automation than their older, more experienced peers. The data shows that by July 2025, nationwide software development employment for 22-25-year-old computer scientists dipped 20% below its peak in October 2022, while rates of employment among other age brackets in the sector remained relatively consistent. As the authors explain, this is likely due to the fact that younger computer scientists lack the experiential knowledge that adds richness of insight and capability compared to their more advanced peers, and instead are predominantly exercising less-advanced, automatable skills that can be more easily supplanted by AI. 
• “Entry-level employment has declined in applications of AI that automate work, with muted changes for augmentation.”
  It is true that in some cases, the roles of software developers are automated by AI, meaning the AI assumes the software development workers’ tasks. Those cases do lead to high displacement rates among younger computer scientists compared to their older colleagues. In other fields, however, roles can be augmented by AI, meaning the AI complements the work of the individual and acts as a partner in completing the tasks. While certain roles may be more susceptible to displacement by AI, as discussed above, roles that use AI augmentatively, such as computer science analyst roles, provide alternative opportunities for young computer science graduates. The study additionally concludes these high-augmentation roles are also where young workers experienced the greatest employment gains, perhaps suggesting a future trend.  

The study’s central metaphor, “canaries in the coalmine,” frames the impact of AI on young computer scientists as an early indicator of broader economic and workforce evolution—much like the industrial revolution or the dawn of the internet—rather than as proof that AI itself will devastate the sector. In fact, the finding that only early-career software developers experienced job cuts suggests the relationship between AI and more experienced developers may be augmentative. If that holds true, computer science curricula may need to shift to equip graduates with more experiential knowledge, helping to “repair” the software development ladder.

Building on this point, comparing Stanford’s data with national data from Lightcast, a leading workforce data analytics company, offers further insight into how recent computer science graduates are responding to the changing tech landscape, which career paths they are pursuing and where their professional journeys are taking them. These insights support the following conclusions: 

1. New hubs of innovation are emerging in the heartland as a result of the migration of talent. In response to difficulties finding jobs in traditional software development roles, young computer scientists are moving away from the traditional geographic hubs of technological innovation in search of employment in software engineering and related fields in other parts of the country—namely, the heartland.

As demonstrated above, heartland states have seen significant increases in young computer scientists migrating to local communities—while California’s percentage of recent computer science graduates has been decreasing in recent years. Among computer science graduates in the years 2023 and 2024 (lining up with the Stanford study’s 22-25 year old age range), 28% work in heartland states, up one percentage point those who graduated in 2019 or 2020. Users can add other states using the dropdown tool to compare the shift among geographies. 

States such as Michigan have seen over a 0.5 percentage point difference between shares of computer science graduates in the 2019 and 2020 cohort and the 2023 and 2024 cohort—a significant increase in a four year period. Conversely, traditional tech hubs have seen significant decreases in their share of computer science graduates, best demonstrated by California’s drop of over 1.5 percentage points in their share between the older and younger cohorts. 

This migration of talent, in part caused by job displacement in the traditional tech hubs, has led to the emergence of new tech hubs in the heartland. Heartland cities such as two-time “secret sauce” city Chattanooga, TN have reaped the benefits, becoming the first city in the US to host a commercial quantum computing center. 

2. Computer scientists are pivoting to other fields. While traditional software development roles may be less prevalent, computer scientists appear to be moving to different sectors—taking on roles in business, finance, sales and administration. The chart below shows the changes in share of computer science graduates in different fields nationwide, separated based on graduation year to demonstrate changes in employment related to age. 

The chart above shows computer science graduates are increasingly employed in fields other than software development, with only 30.8% of the 2023-2024 graduation cohort working as software developers compared to 39.4% of the 2019-2020 cohort. Recent graduates are instead moving into fields like business and financial operations, sales and mathematical science (which includes data science). This shift is consistent across both the heartland and non-heartland regions. While it is difficult to attribute this shift entirely to the advent of artificial intelligence, it does appear recent computer science graduates are finding jobs that suit their skillsets in less traditional technical roles, which could signal a broader economic shift.

3. Heartland leaders are creating programs to grow digital skills in students and younger professionals. Heartland Forward has launched a pilot program granting cohorts of Arkansas rural high students the opportunity to grow their AI-literacy skills through a gamified curriculum in partnership with ed-tech leader Stemuli. Further, universities around the heartland, such as Ohio University, offer undergraduate and graduate concentrations in applied AI, with schools like Indiana University creating universal upskilling programs. These efforts to digitally upskill young professionals align with the data put forth by the Stanford study suggesting young workers who effectively augment their work with AI can experience success in the job market.

Applying Heartland Forward’s complementary work to Stanford’s analysis adds a meaningful and needed perspective when considering how both public and private sectors should engage with AI, craft policy or forge partnerships. The workforce displacements caused by AI could mean fewer opportunities in the software development industry, but that is only problematic if recent computer science graduates do not find their finance and technical sales roles equally fulfilling. While AI’s negative impact on certain jobs is unsettling to policymakers and individuals alike, taking a thoughtful, human-centered approach to policy discussions regarding AI can allow the heartland to effectively engage with the needs of an evolving economy.

What is clear is that AI is not simply a disruptor—it is a catalyst for economic transformation. As young computer scientists adapt, industries shift and talent migrates, the heartland is uniquely positioned to seize this moment and lead. By using nuanced data to inform effective policy that aligns educators, employers and investors—the region can ensure that AI augments rather than diminishes opportunity. If engaged thoughtfully, these shifts will not only safeguard livelihoods but also fuel new hubs of innovation, making the heartland a proving ground for the next chapter of America’s economic story.

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Read Heartland Forward’s Rewiring the Job Market analysis here

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